如何规划疫情后世界

时间:2022-06-27 09:10:03 浏览量:

  Ex ecutiv e Summary

  The

 CO VID-19

 virus

 is

 sw eeping

 acr os s the

  w orld,

 l eaving

  a

  tr ail

  of

  ec onomic

 and social

 damage in

 its

 wak e.

 F orwar d

 thinking or ganizations ar e

 s t arting to

 plan

 f or

 a

 pos t- CO VID-19

  w orld.

 Ho w e v er,

 pr edicting

 what this

 w orld

 will

 l ook

 lik e

 is

 not

 easy .

 W e

 c an be

  r easonabl y

  sur e

  that

  the

  w orld

  will

  not simpl y

 r e v ert

 back

 to

 the

 way

 it was bef or e

 the crisis,

 but

 what

 will

 be

 diff er ent? The

 pr oblem with

  answ ering

  this

  ques tion

  is

  that

  r ec ent his tory

 does not

 pr ovide

 us

 with

 any

 points of r ef er enc e

 to

 l earn

 fr om.

 The

 w orld

 has

 simpl y ne v er

 f ac ed

 a

 crisis

 lik e

 this

 one

 bef or e.

 And y et,

 whil e

 it may

 not

 be

 pos sibl e

 to

 pr edict the pos t

 CO VID-19

 landsc ape,

 it is

 s till

 pos sibl e

 to plan

 f or

 it.

  Sc enario planning is

 a

 t ool designed to

 help or ganizations plan

 f or

 uncert ain futures. It

 has been

 used e xt ensiv el y

 by

 or ganizations whose perf ormanc e

 is

 vulner abl e

 to

 major ec onomic, social,

  politic al,

 and

  envir onment al

  shifts, such

  as

  the

  oil

  and

  gas

  indus try .

  CO VID-19 has

 plac ed

 all

 sector s

 within

 this

 c ont e xt

 of uncert ainty,

 r equiring them to

 think and

 plan in

 ne w

 ways.

  Sc enarios

 do

 not

 att empt to

 pr edict the

 futur e, but

  r ather

 identify

  a

  set

  of

  pos sibl e

  futur e s t at es.

 The y

  f ocus

  on

  the

  e xt ernal

  driving f or c es

  o v er

  which

 individual

 or ganizations hav e

 littl e

 or

 no

 c ontrol. Sc enarios

 ar e

 both plausibl e

 and

 chall enging.

 Or ganizations benefit

  fr om

  sc enario

  planning

  by

  imagining ho w

  the y

  might

 c ompete

  in

  each

 sc enario. This pr oc es s

 helps

 them widen

 their

 thinking ar ound

 pos sibl e

 r esponses

 and

 out c omes. F or e xampl e,

 some

 r esponses

 may

 not

 hav e

 been c onsider ed

 if the

 sc enario planning pr oc es s hadn’t

  been

 f oll o w ed.

 Other

 r esponses become cl ear er

 and

 mor e

 obvious

 as

 the y

 ar e identified

 acr os s

 multipl e

 scenarios.

  In

 this

 r eport,

 w e

 hav e

 cr eat ed

 a

 set

 of

 plausibl e sc enarios

 f or

 the

 w orld

 aft er

 CO VID-19, and

 pr ovided

 guidelines

 f or

 ho w

 these sc enarios

 c an be

 used in

 a

 w orkshop

 f ormat to

  help

  pr epar e

  f or

  a

  v ery

  uncert ain

 futur e. Sc enario

 planning

 w orkshops

  ar e

  r el e v ant f or

 or ganizations wishing to

 de v el op

 pr oactiv e s tr at egies f or

 dealing with

 the

 pandemic.

 F act or s

 influencing

 a

 pos t-C O VID - 19 futur e

 Among

 the

 many

 f act or s

 impacting

 the

 pos t-C O VID-19

 landsc ape,

 w e

 hav e

 identified

 thr ee

 that,

 in

 our

 opinion,

 will cr eat e

 the

 gr eat es t

 impact

 and

 unc ert aint y .

 SCENARIO PLANNING

 F OR

 A

 POST -CO VID- 19

 W ORLD

 F AC T O R

 1:

 VIRUS

 L ONGEVIT Y

 Ho w

 l ong

 bef or e

 vir al

 inf ections

 and

 deaths

 sl o w do wn

 t o

 the point wher e

 isolation policies c an

 be lift ed?

  F A CTO R

 2 :

 GL OB AL

 MINDSET

 Ho w

 will

 peopl e’ s

 vie ws

 of

 social,

 ec onomic,

 and political

 boundaries

 be

 impact ed

 by

 the virus?

 F AC T O R

 3:

 DIGIT AL

 ADOP TION

 Ho w

 will

 c onsumer s

 r eact

 t o

 digital

 t ools

 and t echnol ogies

 that

 hav e

 emer ged

 because

 of

 the virus?

  Virus

 Longe vity

 Ho w

 l ong

 bef or e

 vir al

 inf ections

 and

 deaths

 sl o w

 do wn

 t o

 the

 point

 wher e

 isolation

 policies c an

 be

 lift ed?

  Short-t erm

 Impact

 One

 pot ential

 out c ome is

 that

 the

 spr ead

 of CO VID-19

 f oll o ws a

 similar

 patt ern

 to

 China, Japan,

 and

  South

 Kor ea

  wher e

  the

  virus r eaches

 its

 peak quickl y,

 but

 also

 dis sipat es quickl y .

 Whil e

 the

 virus

 does not

 disappear, the mas sive

 scal e

 of

 inf ections

 and

 deaths f ades away

 in

 a

 f e w

 months. Aft er

 se v er e

 disruption in

 Q1

 2020,

 many

 parts

 of

 the

 w orld

 ar e

 r eady to

 r eopen

 their

 bor der s

 and

 r eturn to

 a

 ne w normal.

  A

 mas sive

  gl obal

 eff ort

 to

  de v el op pr e v ent ativ e

 measur es,

 such

 as

 v ac cines, and tr eatment options r esults

 in

 multipl e

 options to

 r educ e

 the

 impact

 and

 spr ead

 of

 the

 virus. Many

 c ountries

 in

 Eas t

 and

 South-Eas t

 Asia r elax

  isolation

 r equir ements,

  busines ses r es t art,

  and

  bor der s

  r eopen

  by

  the

  end

  of May

  2020.

  Mos t

  of

  Eur ope

  r eopens

 by

  the end

 of

 June, including

 a

 full

 r eins t at ement of unrestrict ed

 tr av el

 within

 the

 Schengen ar ea. North

 Americ a

 c omes

 back

 online

 by

 Labour Day .

 Some pock ets

 of

 CO VID-19

 r emain in

 the de v el oping

 w orld

 thr ough

 the

 end

 of

 Q3,

 but almos t

  all

  CO VID-19

  r estrictions

  ar e

  lift ed gl oball y

 by

 the

 beginning

 of

 Q4

 2020.

 Long-t erm

 Impact

 Another out c ome sees

 CO VID-19

 linger

 acr os s the

 w orld

 f or

 at

 l eas t

 a

 y ea r .

 The

 att empt by many

 c ountries

 t o

 ‘flatt en

 the

 curv e’

 f ails,

 and inf ections

  and

  deaths

 c ontinue

  to

  gr o w

  and spr ead

 unabat ed.

 Whil e

 the

 de v el oped

 w orld s truggl es

 to

 maintain c ontr ol

 of

 the

 virus, the de v el oping

  w orld

  is

  o v errun

  with

  inf ections and

 deaths.

 A mut ated

 v er sion

 of

 the

 virus

 that was

 fir s t

 identified

 in

 Br azil

 sho ws

 r esis t anc e to

  ne wl y

  de v el oped

  tr eatments.

 Despit e

  a mas siv e

  mobilization

  of

  scientific

  r esour c es, earl y

 v accines

 f ail

 to

 pr e v ent

 the

 virus. Countries

  that

  surviv ed

  the

  initial

  wav e

  of inf ection,

 lik e

 China, South Kor ea

 and

 Japan, see

 a

 sec ond

 wav e

 of

 the

 mut ated

 virus

 appear that

 is

 e v en

 mor e

 deadl y

 than

 the

 fir s t.

 Bor der s and

 non-essential

 busines ses

 r emain cl osed acr os s

 mos t

 of

 the

 w orld. In

 this

 out c ome,

 the gl obal

 l ock do wn

 r emains

 until at

 l eas t

 the

 fir s t quart er

 of

 2021.

 SCENARIO PLANNING

 F OR

 A

 POST -CO VID- 19

 W ORLD

 The

 virus

 dis sipat es

 within

 a f e w months and isolation

 policies

 ar e

 lift ed quickl y

 Inf ections

 and deaths

 c ontinue

 f or

 at l eas t

 a y ear and isolation

 policies

 r emain

 in

 plac e

 indefinit el y

 SHOR T - TERM

 IMP AC T

 L ONG- TERM

 IMP AC T

  Ho w

 will

 peopl e ’ s

 vie ws

 of

 social,

 ec onomic,

 and

 political boundaries

 be

 impact ed

 by

 the

 virus?

  Gl obal

 Ac c ept ance

 In

  one

  out c ome,

  the

  gl obalization

 of

  tr ade and

 tr av el

 picks

 up

 unabat ed

 onc e

 the immediat e

 eff ects

 of

 the

 virus

 subside. The CO VID-19

  c oor dination

  chall enges

 betw een nations

 and

  r egions

 point

  to

  a

  need

  f or cl oser

 gl obal alignment. Many

 peopl e

 r ealize that

  if

 information,

 know-ho w,

  and

  critic al infrastructur e,

  lik e

  medic al

  equipment,

  had been

 shar ed

 earlier

 and

 mor e

 eff ectiv el y,

 f ar f e w er

 peopl e

 w ould hav e

 died

 acr os s

 the

 w orld. This

 r ealization

 l eads

 to

  the

  es t ablishment of

 s tr onger gl obal ins titutions to

 pursue

 the gl obal ‘c ommon good’.

 Gl obal suppl y

 chains ar e

  r e-s t art ed

  and

  tr ade

  r out es

  ar e

  quickl y r e-es t ablished.

 Ne w

  tr ade

  deals

  betw een c ountries

 and

 r egions ar e

 quickl y

 negotiat ed and

 r atified.

 With

 barrier s

 being

 l o w er ed

 and bor der

  c ontr ols

  w eak ened,

  peopl e

  f eel

  fr ee to

 tr av el

 and

 liv e

 in

 other parts

 of

 the

 w orld. T r av el

  is

  cus t omary,

  and

  e v en

  though

  virus br eak-outs

  oc cur,

  ther e

  is

  enough

  medic al c apacity

 to

 identify

 and

 c ont ain episodes, and to

 enabl e

 individuals r ec o v er

 quickl y

 no

 matt er wher e

 the y

 tr av el

 t o.

 CO VID-19

 is

 seen

 as

 a harbinger

 of

 cl oser

 gl obal social,

 ec onomic, and

 envir onment al

 c ooper ation.

 Gl obal

 R ejection

 In

 another out c ome,

 the

 fr agment ed

 r esponse to

 CO VID-19

 and

 the

 f ailur e

 to

 s top

 the

 virus ’ spr ead

 l ead

 to

 a

 deep

 dis trus t

 among diff er ent parts

  of

  the

  w orld.

 A

 multi-national

  ‘blame game’

 is

 ignit ed

 as

 c ountries

 att empt to

 shift the

 r esponsibility f or

 the

 inf ections

 and

 deaths to

  someone

 else.

  When

  bor der s

  do

  r eopen, the y

 ar e

 l es s

 fr ee

 than

 bef or e.

 Dis trus t

 of

 China, the

  US,

 and

  Russia

  deepens

 gl oball y,

  and each withdraws partiall y

 int o

 its

 own

 bor der s, l eaving

 a

 gl obal l eader ship

 v acuum. Regional allianc es,

  lik e

  the

  EU

  and

  ASEAN

  s t art

  to w eak en

 and

 fr agment.

 P eopl e

 ar e

 shock ed

 by the

 oppr es sive

 r eaction to

 the

 virus

 in

 some c ountries,

  and

 become

  l es s

 c omfort abl e living and

 w orking

 abr oad.

 Nationalism

 gr o ws acr os s

  the

  w orld

  as

  c ountries

  r ealize

  that gl obalization

 has

  made

 them

 def enc el es s agains t

 a

 gl obal pandemic lik e

 CO VID-19.

 Gl obal

 Mindset SCENARIO PLANNING

 F OR

 A

 POST -CO VID- 19

 W ORLD

 9

 P eopl e

 see

 the

 v alue

 of a gl obal

 r esponse

 t o

 the

 virus and seek

 t o

 incr ease

 c oor dination

 acr os s

 the

 w orl d

  P eopl e

 become

 deepl y

 sk eptic al

 and dis trus tful

 of other

 countries

 and r etr eat t o

 a mor e

 f amiliar

 and l oc al

 wa y

 of living

 GL OB AL AC CEP T ANCE

 GL OB AL

 RE JEC TION

 Digit al

 Adoption

 Ho w

 will

 c onsumer s

 r eact

 t o

 digit al

 t ools

 and

 t echnol ogies

 that

 hav e

 emer ged

 because

 of

 the

 virus?

 Digit al

 Ac c el er ation

 In

  one

  out c ome,

  CO VID-19

  initiat es

  a

  sur ge in

 the

 de v el opment

 and

 usage of

 ne w

 digit al t echnol ogies.

  The

  r equir ement

 to

  w ork

  and socialize

 via

 t echnol ogy

 pulls

 t echnol ogy sk eptics

  and

  luddit es

  int o

  the

  information age.

  Video

  c onf er encing

 solutions

  become mains tr eam f or

 w ork

 and

 pl easur e.

 Softwar e v endor s

  mak e

  sur e

  that

  all

  pr ogr ams

  and apps w ork

 at

 any

 time,

 fr om anywher e.

 With r estrictions

 on

 physic al

 c ol oc ation,

 ne w

 f orms of

 ent ert ainment

  ar e

 de v el oped

 that

 ar e c ompl et el y

 t echnol ogy-mediat ed.

 Physic al r estrictions

  e v erywhere

  ar e

  c ompensat ed

  in part

 by

  ne w

  adv anc es

  in

  digit al

  t echnol ogy . De v el oping

  c ountries

  get

  ac c es s

  to

  cheaper smart

  devic es

  and

  infrastructur e,

  so

  that peopl e

 acr os s

 the

 w orld

 become ac cus t omed to

 living,

 w orking,

  and

 socializing

 with t echnol ogy .

 Digit al

 Sk epticism

 In

 another out c ome,

 the

 push to

 use

 digit al t echnol ogies

 mor e

  and

  mor e

  f or

  living

 and w orking

 l eads to

 a

 backlash.

 F or

 c orpor at e- type

  w ork

  wher e

  inv es tments

  c an

 be

  made in

  r eliability,

 the

  t echnol ogy

  does

 enabl e pr oductivity .

  Ho w e v er,

 f or

  “hav e

  nots”

 or in

  per sonal

  use,

 ther e

  is

  deep

  sk epticism of

  surv eillanc e,

  c ontr ol,

  and

  ultimat el y

  a fundament al

 mis trus t

 of

 the

 mos t

 pr oductiv e digit al

 t ools

 by

 c onsumer s

 and

 civic society at

  lar ge.

  Ther e

  is

  c onsider abl e

  activism

  to l obby

 f or

 l es s

 intrusion, but

 it’ s

 uncl ear

 ho w the

 hold

  of

 the

 monopolis tic

 c ompanies that

  c ontr ol

  k e y

  digit al

  t echnol ogies

 c an

 be r educ ed.

 Surv eillanc e

 measures

 impl ement ed by

 go v ernments

 and

 lar ge

 c orpor ations to

  k eep

  tr ack

  of

  the

  virus

  l ead

  to

  a

  deep mis trus t

 of

 t echnol ogy .

 P eopl e

 s till

 use

 digit al t echnol ogies,

 but

 begin

 to

 r esent the

 intrusion that

 the y

 plac e

 on

 their

 liv es,

 whil e

 c alls

 f or priv acy

  rights

  and

  the

  fr eedom

 to

  be

  ‘l eft al one’ become l oude r .

 SCENARIO PLANNING

 F OR

 A

 POST -CO VID- 19

 W ORLD

 11

 The

 virus

 initiat es

 a w av e

 of inno v ation and adoption of ne w digit al

 t echnol ogies

 Digit al

 sk epticism

 set s

 in

 and peopl e turn

 awa y

 fr om

 digit al

 t echnol ogies

 DIGIT AL AC CELERA TION

 DIGIT AL SKEP TICISM

 What

 will

 the

 pos t-C O VID - 19

 futur e

 l ook lik e?

 The

 int erpla y

 of

 the

 thr ee

 f act or s

 w e

 sel ect ed

 –

 vir al l onge vit y ,

 gl obal

 mindset

 and

 digit al

 adoption

 –

 c an

 l ead t o

 r emark abl y

 differ ent

 futur e

 w orl ds.

 Among

 the

 pos sibl e w orl ds

 emer ging

 fr om

 the

 c ombination of

 the

 thr ee f act or s,

 w e

 de v el oped

 f our

 sc enarios that

 chall enge

 our thinking,

 ques tion

 our

 as sumptions, and

 help us

 think br oadl y

 about

 the

 futur e.

 The

 choic e

 w as

 based

 on

 an att empt

 t o

 pr ovide

 plausibl e,

 no v el,

 y et

 div er gent vie ws

 on ho w

 the

 pos t-C O VID - 19

 w orl d

 might

 l ook,

 r ather

 than

 on ho w

 pr obabl e

 each

 sc enario might

 be.

  Gl obal

 Mark etplac e

 •

 Short-t erm

 virus

 l onge vity

 •

 Gl obal ac c ept anc e

 •

 Digit al

 ac c el er ation

 Back

 t o

 Basics

 •

 Long-t erm

 virus

 l onge vity

 •

 Gl obal r ejection

 •

 Digit al

 sk epticism

 Digit al

 Reset

 •

 Long-t erm

 vir al

 l onge vity

 •

 Gl obal ac c ept anc e

 •

 Digit al

 sk epticism

 W all ed Gar dens

 •

 Short-t erm

 virus

 l onge vity

 •

 Gl obal r ejection

 •

 Digit al

 ac c el er ation

 SCENARIO PLANNING

 F OR

 A

 POST -CO VID- 19

 W ORLD

 13

  Digit al

 Adoption

  DIGIT AL AC CELERA TION

  DIGIT AL SKEP TICISM

 SHOR T TERM

  GL OB AL RE JEC TION

  L ONG TERM

 GL OB AL AC CEP T ANCE

 Virus

 Longe vity

 Gl obal

 Mindes t

  Sc enario c omparison &

 implic ations F our

 sc enarios t o

 chall enge

 y our

 s tr at egy

 and

 r esponse

 t o

 C O VID-19

 change

 W e

 hav e

 e xpl or ed

 pos sibl e

 div er gent

 futur es

 to

 c ompr ehend

 ho w

 the

 pos t-CO VID-19

 w orld might l ook.

 SCENARIO PLANNING

 F OR

 A

 POST -CO VID- 19

 W ORLD

 Gl obal

 Mark etplac e

 •

 Short-term

 virus

 l onge vity

 •

 Gl obal ac c ept anc e

 •

 Digit al

 ac cel er ation

 •

 Long-term

 vir al

 l onge vity

 •

 Gl obal ac cel er ation

 •

 Digit al

 sk epticism

  •

 Long-term

 virus

 l onge vity

 •

 Gl obal r ejection

 •

 Digit al

 sk epticism

  •

 Short-term

 virus

 l onge vity

 •

 Gl obal r ejection

 •

 Digit al

 ac cel er ation

 • In

 this

 sc enario, the

 w orld

 quickl y

 mo v es

 on

 fr om the

 CO VID-19 pandemic. P eopl e

 r ealize

 that

 the

 virus

 was jus t

 a

 t empor ary

 health e v ent,

 with

 no

 deeper ec onomic, politic al, or

 social

 r oots.

 Ther e

 is

 a gener al

 sense

 of

 the

 importanc e

 of

 ‘getting back

 to

 busines s ’.

 Ther ef or e, bor der s

 r eopen

 and

 tr ade

 r esumes

 as

 bef or e.

 Widespr ead

 usage of digit al

 t echnol ogies during the

 crisis

 l eads to

 a

 ne w

 wav e

 of

 digit al inno v ation.

 This digit al

 r enais sanc e

 does not

 jus t

 oc cur

 in

 Silic on

 V all e y, but

 acr os s

 the

 w orld. As

 bor der s

 open

 and

 tr ade

 barrier s

 ar e

 r emo v ed, peopl e

 s t art

 to

 liv e

 and

 w ork

 mor e

 in

 other c ountries.

  Digit al

 Reset

  • In

 this

 sc enario, inf ections

 and

 deaths fr om the

 virus

 f ail

 to

 dis sipat e. National

 go v ernments

 r ealize

 that

 unilat er al

 r esponses

 ar e

 f ailing, so a

 mas sive

 multilat er al

 eff ort is

 undert ak en

 to

 sl o w

 down

 the

 spr ead of

 the

 virus. Aft er

 some

 time

 and

 eff ort,

 pr ogr es s

 is

 made,

 and

 a

 lar ge

 part of

 the

 suc c es s

 is

 cr edit ed

 to

 the

 gl oball y

 c oor dinat ed

 r esponse. As soon as

 tr av el

 r estrictions

 ar e

 lift ed,

 peopl e

 s t art

 to

 mo v e

 again,

 t ourism picks

 up

 quickl y,

 and

 gl obal suppl y

 chains

 ar e

 r eopened.

 At

 the

 same time,

 peopl e

 s t art

 to

 r ealize

 that

 the

 pandemic, e v en

 though

 it was r esponsibl e

 f or

 many

 thousands of

 deaths,

 was made much

 w orse

 due t o

 the

 c onst ant

 flo w

 of

 sensationalized

 misinf ormation.

 Ther ef or e,

 many peopl e

 r estrict

 their

 e xposur e

 to

 digit al

 media and

 gener all y

 r etr eat

 fr om an o v er-e xposur e

 to

 digit al

 t echnol ogies.

 Back

 t o

 Basics

  • In

 this

 sc enario, CO VID-19

 inf ections

 and

 deaths f ail

 to

 sl o w

 do wn,

 e v en aft er

 the

 so-c all ed

 flatt ening

 of

 the

 curv e.

 P eopl e

 bec ome

 dis trus tful and

 sk eptic al

 about

 thr eats fr om outside their

 immediat e

 envir onments. T ourism

 f ails

 to

 r eignit e,

 as

 peopl e

 choose to

 tr av el

 cl ose to

 home,

 and gl obal suppl y

 chains

 ar e

 dismantl ed

 to

 av oid

 vulner abilities

 to

 futur e shocks.

 P eopl e

 become deepl y

 suspicious

 of

 peopl e

 and

 pr oducts fr om other parts

 of

 the

 w orld. Digit al

 t echnol ogies become too

 inv asive

 and perv asive

 f or

 many

 peopl e,

 and

 thus

 the y

 oft en

 disengage.

 Ev en

 y oung peopl e

 r etr eat

 fr om the

 c ons t ancy

 of

 being

 online.

  W all ed Gar dens

  • In

 this

 sc enario, the

 virus

 dis sipat es

 quickl y,

 so

 the

 immediat e

 thr eat of

 infection and

 death

 disappear s

 in

 mos t

 parts

 of

 the

 w orld. Ho w e v er, lingering

 suspicions

 r emain about

 the

 danger s

 of

 pandemics

 fr om f or eign lands.

 The

 inv oc ation

 of

 the

 Def ense

 Pr oduction

 Act in

 the

 US, and

 similar

 l egislation

 else wher e

 that

 prioritized

 national int er ests

 during

 the

 height

 of

 the

 virus

 outbr eak

 l eads

 t o

 a

 l oc al-fir s t,

 isolationis t ment ality .

 Nations

 prioritize

 themsel v es

 o v er

 the

 gl obal c oll ectiv e

 good. National

 patriotism

 gr o ws al ong

 with

 pres sur e

 to

 limit

 immigr ation.

 T ourism

 f ails

 to

 pick

 up

 as

 many

 f or eign des tinations l ose their

 allur e and

 l oc al

 trips

 and

 e v ents become mor e

 popula r .

 T echnol ogy

 r emains perv asive

 but

 peopl e

 become l es s

 int er es t ed

 in

 gl obal themes

 and c el ebrities. Loc al

 v er sions

 of

 gl obal apps and

 softwar e

 pr oducts mak e gains

 agains t

 the

 digit al

 giants.

  Gl obal Mark etplac e

 Digit al Reset

 Back

 t o Basics

 W all ed Gar dens

 Quick r eturn t o gl obal geopolitic al

 s tability,

 opennes s

 and int ernational

 c ooper ation.

 Harmonization of

 tr ade and

 engagement

 rul es

 on many

 t opics:

 dat a

 fl o ws, cyber

 security, Int ernet go v ernanc e.

  Str ong

 push f or multilater al

 c ooper ation.

 Harmonization of

 tr ade and

 engagement

 rul es on

 many

 t opics, including guidelines

 on

 r esponsibl e and

 ethic al

 use

 of

 digit al

 t echnol ogies and inf ormation

 flo ws.

  Uns t abl e

 geopolitic al environment, pr ot ectionism

 t ak es

 o v er: s t agnant

 gr owth.

 Lack

 of

 int ernational harmonization in

 priv acy s t andar ds

 and

 digit al go v ernanc e.

  Societies

 tr end

 t o war ds nationalism,

 isolationism, and

 pr ot ectionism

 Str ong

 go v ernment int erv ention

 t o

 support l oc al

 ec onomies. Loc al

 digit al

 giants r educ e the

 po w er

 of

 gl obal play er s.

 Vibrant

 and

 highl y c ompetitiv e

 busines s landsc ape

 with

 small and

 lar ge

 c ompanies c ompeting fr om within and

 outside r ef er enc e industries.

 Digit al

 busines s

 models unf old

 their

 full

 v alue. High r at es

 of

 c orpor at e mort ality .

 Digit al

 disruptor s

 ar e chall enged

 by

 c onsumer s ’ lack

 of

 trus t

 in

 online servic es. Small

 and

 lar ge c ompanies t eam t ogether in

 c onsortia t o

 off er digit all y

 secur ed

 servic es thr ough

 platf orms.

 Int ense

 c ompetition acr os s c onsortiums.

 Lar ge

 r egional c ompanies dominat e

 the

 landsc ape.

 Mark ets

 c onsolidat e

 within industries.

 Digit al

 busines s

 models l ose their

 s tr engths in t erms

 of

 e xperienc e

 and platf orm

 v alue. The

 t ech bubbl e

 bur s ts.

 Multinational

 c ompanies become r egional. Gl obal tr ade

 shrinks bec ause

 of

 pr ot ectionism. Some l oc al

 and

 r egional mark ets

 thriv e,

 whil e other s

 suff er .

 Suc c es sful

 c ompanies ent er

 mark et

 adjac encies t o

 k eep

 up

 gr owth.

  Business-friendl y r egulation f av oring indus try

 c onv er genc e: fi nanc e

 &

 tel ec om

 & e-c ommer c e;

 ener gy &

 aut omotive;

 pos t

 & e-c ommer c e.

 Business-friendl y r egulation f av oring indus try

 c onv er genc e: fi nanc e

 &

 tel ec om

 & e-c ommer c e;

 ener gy &

 aut omotive;

 pos t

 & e-c ommer c e.

 Regulation hindering indus try

 c onv er genc e. Gl obal giants ar e

 impact ed and

 pr ot ect ed.

 Go v ernments

 enact laws

 t o

 pr ot ect peopl e fr om poor ethic al

 digit al practic es. Business-friendl y

 l oc al and

 r egional r egulation f av oring indus try c onv er genc e:

 fi nanc e

 & tel ec om

 &

 e-c ommer c e; ener gy

 &

 aut omotive;

 pos t &

 e-c ommer c e.

 Asia

 emerges

 as

 the

 main gl obal driv er

 of

 inno v ation.

 Ne w

 inno v ations scal e quickl y

 acr os s

 the

 gl obe.

 Digit al

 inno v ation

 expands fr om base in

 US

 t o

 gl obal.

 Asia

 emerges

 as

 the

 main gl obal driv er

 of

 pr oduct and

 busines s

 inno v ation.

 Digit al

 inno v ation

 sl o w- down

 due

 t o

 c onsumer/ c ompany

 disengagement. Digit al

 inno v ation c ontinues t o

 be

 driven by

 a

 small

 set

 of

 lar ge monopolistic

 t ech c ompanies. Security t ak es

 off .

 Inno v ation

 c ontinues but

 at l oc al

 and

 r egional l e v els. Diff er enc es

 among r egions become mor e

 pr onounc ed.

 Consumers/c ompanies hav e

 a

 digit al

 al ways-on appr oach.

 P er sonalized

 pr oducts e xpand

 at

 the

 expense

 of priv acy

 &

 security.

 Consumer s

 ar e disillusioned

 by

 digital: c os ts

 of

 being

 online

 ar e higher

 than

 bene fi ts.

 Consumers/c ompanies v alue

 priv acy

 and

 security fi rst :

 • The y

 want

 c ontrol

 & o wner ship

 of

 their

 dat a.

 • T rus t

 in

 a

 v endor is the

 k e y

 v alue

 in

 the

 purchasing

 pr oc es s. Consumer s

 ar e

 awar e

 of the

 priv acy

 and

 security c os ts

 of

 being

 digit al, and r eluctantl y

 bear these risks.

 Consumers/c ompanies hav e

 limit ed

 l e v er age o v er

 the

 dat a

 that

 is

 being c oll ect ed

 about

 them whene v er

 the y

 ar e

 online. T rus t

 in

 t echnol ogy pr o vider s

 that

 guar antee priv acy

 and

 security is

 highl y

 v alued by c onsumers/c ompanies. Consumers/c ompanies hav e

 a

 digit al

 al ways-on appr oach.

 P er sonalized

 pr oducts e xpand

 at

 the

 expense

 of priv acy

 &

 security.

 Shift away

 fr om gl obal br ands lik e

 Googl e,

 Nes tlé, Nik e,

 Amazon,

 t o

 mor e l oc al

 and

 r egional br ands.

 Consumer engagement Inno v ation tr ends

 Mark et r egulation

 Busines s landsc ape Gl obal envir onment

  Ho w

 t o

 use

 the

 sc enarios The

 int erpla y

 of

 these

 f act or s

 l eads

 t o

 differ ent

 futur es,

 depending

 on

 ho w

 the

 chosen

 f act or s

 pla y

 out. Among se v eral

 pos sibl e

 c ombinations, w e

 hav e

 e xpl or ed

 f ou r .

  W e

 hav e

 de v el oped

 these sc enarios

 to

 pr ovide or ganizations with

 a

 t oolkit

 to

 under s t and

 the c ompl e x

  landsc ape

  surr ounding

  them.

  The sc enarios

  ar e

  int ended

  to

  r aise

  ques tions; chall enge

  thinking

 and

  help

  decision m a k e r s

  t es t

  their

  s tr at egy

  and

  underl ying as sumptions.

 By

 placing

 their

 o wn

 or ganization

 in

 each

 of the

 depict ed

 sc enarios,

  busines s

 l eader s c an

 as ses s

  thr eats

 and

  opportunities,

 r aise awar enes s

 of

 the

 envir onment and

 f os t er

 the or ganization’ s

  busines s

  agility

 in

  navigating today’ s

 uncert ainty .

  W e

 r ec ommend

  the

 f oll o wing

 approach to

  using

  the

  sc enarios.

 Sc enario

 planning ses sions

 w ork

 bes t

 with

 t eams

 so

 that

 multipl e sc enarios

 c an be

 as ses sed

 and

 debat ed.

 1. All

 t eam member s

 should

 be

 f amiliar

 with the

 f act or s

 and

 sc enarios

 in

 adv anc e

 of the

 ses sion

  2. The

  f acilit at or

  walks

  thr ough

  the

  thr ee f act or s

 -

 virus

 l onge vity,

 gl obal mindset, and

  digit al

  adoption

  -

  paying

  particular att ention

 to

 the

 ‘e xtr eme’

 end-points

 3. The

  f acilit at or

  then

  pr esents

  the

  f our sc enarios

  -

  gl obal

 mark etplac e,

  digit al r eset,

 back

 to

 basics,

 and

 wall ed

 gar dens

 4. T eams

  ar e

  as signed

 one

  sc enario

 and ask ed

  to

  br eak

 out

  and

  discus s

  the or ganization’ s

 s tr at egy

 giv en

 the

 as signed sc enario

 5. Upon

 r eturn,

  each

 t eam

 pr esents

  their sc enario s tr at egy,

 which is

 then

 discus sed within

 the

 gr oup

  6. The

  gr oup

  builds

  on

  the

  s tr engths

 and w eaknes ses

  of

  each

 pr esent ed

  s tr at egy to

  cr eate

  one

  c onsolidat ed

  approach

 to managing in

 a

 pos t-CO VID- 19

 w orld

 Mak e

 sur e

 y ou

 ar e

 pr epar ed f or

 the

 “ne w

 norma l ”

  R EAL

 LE ARNING.

 R EAL

 IMPAC T

 www .imd.or g

 ®

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